2025.02.01
Last year around this time, we discussed the KPOP bubble in Season1#4.
In 2023, KPOP CD sales reached an all-time high, with total annual sales surpassing 100 million copies for the first time in KPOP history, marking the peak of the KPOP bubble.
At the end of that column, the author made a suggestion to all KPOP fans.
“How about we all take a break in 2024? Why not prioritize your own happiness this year?
When BTS returns in full force in 2025, the CD sales war will inevitably resume, so why not take a breather until then?”
And so it was.
Whether this author's voice reached KPOP fans is unknown, but it turned out to be true.
2024 indeed became a year of rest.
Take a look at the CD sales chart for 2024 released by the Korean CIRCLE CHART below.
Since 2015, CD sales had been on a steady rise, but for the first time in a decade, they fell below the previous year's figures. This resulted in a negative growth of 19.5% compared to the previous year. However, one could argue that the over 100 million copies sold in 2023 was an anomaly. In fact, in 2024, over 93 million copies were sold, which is still more than 15 million copies above the 77 million sold in 2022.
Therefore, it is still too early to conclude that the KPOP bubble has burst just because of a roughly 20% decline from the previous year. After all, it is said that two major groups will make their comeback in 2025. The return of the current KPOP King and Queen.
Yes, BTS and BLACKPINK.
BTS members have been serving in the military since the release of their album "Proof" in 2022, and this year they will all return after completing their service.
If they release an album this year, it will be their first new music in three years, and many fans, known as ARMY (BTS's fan name), have likely been saving up for this long-awaited moment.
Moreover, during their hiatus, each member has been active in solo projects, with Jimin's "LIKE CRAZY," released in March 2023, becoming the first KPOP solo artist to reach number one on the US Billboard Hot 100.
This was a remarkable achievement, surpassing the peak of PSY's global hit "Gangnam Style," which reached number two.
Then, Jung Kook released his song "Seven" four months later in July, which also became a global hit, following Jimin to secure the number one spot on the US Billboard Hot 100.
BTS's fandom was already massive, but the success of these two solo songs has attracted new fans, and the potential number of BTS fans is now unknown.
BLACKPINK also last released their album "BORN PINK" in 2022, and like BTS, they will make a comeback after three years. Moreover, they have also been active in solo projects, and Rosé's "APT.," released in October 2024, quickly took the world by storm, successfully attracting new fans for BLACKPINK.
"APT." rose to number three on the most recent (February 1) US Billboard Hot 100, marking the highest position for a KPOP female artist. Even three months after its release, it continues to maintain its popularity, and it wouldn't be surprising if it climbs to number one.
It also reached number two on the UK singles chart, setting a record for the highest position for a KPOP female artist.
At the recent EDM festival "GMO SONIC" held at Saitama Super Arena, "APT." created a unique excitement among an audience primarily composed of EDM fans, indicating that it has transcended the boundaries of KPOP.
Considering that both BTS and BLACKPINK are making their comebacks, it is impossible to predict how KPOP CD sales will trend in 2025.
BTS's highest initial sales were 3,378,600 copies of "MAP OF THE SOUL: 7" in 2020, which held the top spot for initial sales for a long time. However, in 2023, three groups—NCT DREAM, Stray Kids, and SEVENTEEN—updated BTS's initial sales record.
In particular, SEVENTEEN's "SEVENTH HEAVEN" surpassed an astonishing 5 million copies in initial sales.
It is likely that ARMY will strive to exceed this 5 million mark for pride's sake.
There’s even a possibility they might aim for 6 million or 7 million copies to ensure they are never surpassed again.
BLACKPINK is in a similar situation.
Their 2022 release "BORN PINK" recorded 1.54 million copies for the highest initial sales by a girl group, but in 2023, they were overtaken by IVE, NewJeans, and aespa, dropping to fourth place.
Since these three groups are competing closely in the 1.6 million range, BLINK (BLACKPINK's fanbase) is surely aiming for over 2 million copies. Simply adding the projected sales of BTS and BLACKPINK to the 93 million copies expected in 2024 would bring us back to the 100 million era.
At this point, fans of the groups that have been surpassed are unlikely to stay silent.
SEVENTEEN may find it difficult to physically surpass others due to members starting their military service, but Stray Kids, who are currently leading the post-BTS popularity, still have untapped potential among their fans.
BTS's comeback could potentially create even more excitement than before.
As for girl groups, aespa, who dominated 2024, is undoubtedly the frontrunner to succeed BLACKPINK.
Having hit with two consecutive songs, "Supernova" and "Whiplash," aespa is expanding their fandom year by year, and it’s not impossible that they could stand shoulder to shoulder with BLACKPINK in terms of potential.
This battle between the new and old girl group queens will be the highlight of 2025!
I will conclude this article with that prediction.
The End
Neko-machi Peko
Head of the SKOOTA KPOP Department
〈Originally a rock music enthusiast who once considered working for Rockin' On, I started listening to KPOP thanks to BTS, then became hooked on BLACKPINK, and dipped my toes into the KPOP world. I became a hardcore fan of Kep1er, who debuted from the survival audition show "Girls Planet 999," resulting in me fully immersing myself in the KPOP scene.〉