2024.2.12
In the previous #4, we discussed whether the KPOP album bubble is nearing its end.
To conclude, looking at the numbers of groups that have made comebacks as of February, it is hard to say that it has ended.
This year, three famous girl groups made their comebacks in January: ITZY, NMIXX, and (G)-IDLE.
Among these, only (G)-IDLE has set a new personal record for album sales.
ITZY saw a significant drop in initial sales from 820,000 copies of their previous album to about 320,000 copies for this one, while NMIXX dropped from 1,030,000 copies to about 620,000 copies.
This might give the impression that the KPOP album bubble has burst, but (G)-IDLE has increased their sales from 670,000 copies to 1,160,000 copies, achieving their first million in initial sales.
In short, 2024 is likely to see an even more pronounced gap between top groups and others than in 2023.
Currently, the top five KPOP girl groups are said to be NewJeans, IVE, aespa, LE SSERAFIM, and (G)-IDLE.
These groups not only achieve million-seller status but also dominate the music charts.
In KPOP, album sales reflect fan popularity, while music charts indicate mainstream popularity.
In today's world, only hardcore fans buy CDs. The general public either listens via streaming services or downloads music.
Thus, just because CDs are selling well doesn't mean the songs are widely known among the public.
It's easy to understand when considering Japan; AKB48 still sells a massive number of CDs, but they are no longer producing songs with the same level of recognition as their hits "Heavy Rotation" or "Koisuru Fortune Cookie" from their peak.
Conversely, Ado and YOASOBI may not sell as many CDs as AKB48, but their songs have incredible recognition among the general public.
If we say that the top five KPOP girl groups have CD sales comparable to AKB48 and song recognition on par with Ado and YOASOBI, it becomes clear just how impressive that is.
In other words, while the top five will likely continue to see a booming album market and multiple million-sellers in 2024, the other groups are expected to return to more typical sales figures, according to the author.
The same goes for boy groups, where the top tier will likely continue to achieve million-seller status.
As mentioned previously, it is undeniable that fans are feeling fatigued.
Still, fandoms that can grit their teeth and buy large quantities of CDs for their favorites will certainly not disappear this year.
In the past month, I feel like I've come to understand this well.
The author's call for "Why not take a break?" was met with laughter from fans of the top groups.
"We will go as far as we can!" the fans of (G)-IDLE led the way in showing that.
In that case, we have nothing more to say and will simply watch their trends.
"This year too, let's fight with passion!"
With that, I want to send a small cheer to them.
Finally, I would like to introduce three groups that have the potential to break into the top five girl groups in 2024.
First up is BABYMONSTER, a seven-member girl group that includes two Japanese members and is making its debut under YG Entertainment for the first time in seven years since BLACKPINK.
While they have not yet made a CD debut, their digital single "BATTER UP," released last November, has already surpassed 200 million views. Given that there have been claims that the girl group boom ended with the emergence of NewJeans, their debut could spark a resurgence of interest in girl groups.
They are set to release their first album on April 1, and it will be exciting to see how well they perform.
The second group is another one that might reignite the girl group boom.
The Black Label, a label founded by BLACKPINK's producer TEDDY, has announced plans to debut a girl group in the first half of this year.
Although BABYMONSTER is under YG, TEDDY is not involved with them.
In that sense, the new group produced by TEDDY at The Black Label may very well be the rightful successor to BLACKPINK.
Finally, the third group is a girl group that will debut from the audition program "I-LAND2," which will air on Mnet starting this April.
This is the female version of "I-LAND," which produced ENHYPEN, and it has been announced that TEDDY will participate as the master producer.
THE BLACK LABEL's representative TEDDY announced as the master producer of "I-LAND 2"
In other words, in 2024, as BLACKPINK surpasses seven years and their activities come to a pause, three girl groups that could potentially become BLACKPINK's successors will debut all at once.
Is it BABYMONSTER, created by YG who brought us BLACKPINK, or is it two yet-to-be-seen groups produced by BLACKPINK's producer TEDDY?
2024 will be the year of the resurgence of girl groups.
Whether this prophecy comes true or not.
The answer lies only with the gods of KPOP.
End
Written by: Nekomachi Peko
Head of the SKOOTA KPOP team
〈Originally a Western rock music enthusiast, I even considered working for Rockin' On at one point. I started listening to KPOP thanks to BTS, then became hooked on BLACKPINK, and dipped my toes into the KPOP world. I got completely absorbed in the survival audition show 'Girls Planet 999', also known as Galpra, and as a result, became a hardcore fan of Kep1er, fully immersing myself in the KPOP scene.〉